🧭 Where Are We In The Crypto Cycle Right Now?

Let’s Talk Real For A Minute.

If you’ve been in crypto for a while — or even if you’re new — you’ve probably heard all the noise lately.

"The bull run is over!""This is a fakeout!""Peak is coming in 2025!""Meme season is dead!""Alt season is starting!"

Honestly? It’s chaos out there.

But this is exactly why I started The Crypto Hobbyist — not to chase hype, not to follow clickbait, but to take a step back, look at the big picture, and keep it real.

So here’s where I think we are right now — based on the charts, market behaviour, and history.

My View: This Bull Run Is Not Over.

We’re in what I’d call the mid-cycle expansion phase.

That means:

Bitcoin has recovered from its last dip.
We’re reclaiming key price levels.
But we haven’t hit mania territory yet.

This is the “calm before the madness.”

Why Do I Think That?

1. The Bitcoin Chart Says So.

BTC is trading above $83k — a key bullish sign.
Volume is increasing steadily.
RSI (momentum indicator) is heating up — but not at insane blow-off levels.
No signs of whale distribution yet (big players are still accumulating).

2. Altcoins Haven’t Fully Pumped Yet.

In past cycles:

Bitcoin runs first.
Ethereum follows.
Big cap alts (like XRP, SHIB, XCN, AMP) move next.
Meme coins and microcaps go wild at the end.

We’re nowhere near that final stage yet.

3. Sentiment Is Still Cautious.

The peak of a bull run is obvious.

It feels like:

"Everyone’s a genius investor." "Your mate from work is buying Dogecoin again." "Crypto TikTok is back with Lambos and 100x calls."

We’re not seeing that yet.

People are still cautious. Still waiting. Still worried about global politics, Trump’s tariffs, and regulation.

That tells me… there’s still room to run.

When Could The Peak Be?

Most analysts (and I agree) are eyeing:

Late 2025 → Early 2026

As the potential peak for this cycle.

This matches:

Historical 4-year cycle patterns.
The Bitcoin Halving effect playing out.
Institutional adoption ramping up.
More crypto ETF products launching.
Utility-driven projects catching the spotlight.

Final Thought — What I’m Doing Right Now:

Simple.

Holding my core bags: XRP, SHIB, XCN, AMP.
Watching altcoin developments.
Staying calm on red days.
Not chasing hype.
Preparing for later 2025 to be absolutely wild.